BEIJING, China—In a capital swathed in the gray chill of economic anxiety, the Mandarins of the Chinese Communist Party convened once again, their faces impassive, their words forceful. A new phase of the Cold War has begun.
By Skeeter Wesinger
April 9. 2025
China, though publicly resolved to “fight to the end,” remains exposed—strategically, industrially, and geopolitically—before the full weight of Washington’s economic arsenal. President Donald Trump, in a maneuver reminiscent of early Cold War brinkmanship, has levied a stunning 104 percent tariff on Chinese goods. The effect is already being felt across the Eastern hemisphere and in the darkened boardrooms of Beijing.
However, the game did not begin with the Trump tariffs.
Long before the world turned its attention to tariffs and trade imbalances, Beijing had already moved its pieces. Silently. Systematically. Rare Earth Elements—that vital arsenal of modern industry, the invisible sinews of everything from smartphones to submarines—became the first pawns on China’s grand chessboard.
The Elements of Power
It was a move the West scarcely registered—at first.
China, holding over 90% of global production, began tightening its grip:
Light Rare Earth Elements (LREEs):
Lanthanum, Cerium, Praseodymium, Neodymium,
Promethium (radioactive, rare even in commerce),
Samarium
Heavy Rare Earth Elements (HREEs):
Europium, Gadolinium, Terbium, Dysprosium,
Holmium, Erbium, Thulium, Ytterbium, Lutetium
Often grouped as well:
Scandium
Yttrium (considered a heavy REE)
These were not just minerals—they were the ore of empires.
The Timeline of Quiet Aggression
1990s–Early 2000s:
China outproduces the world. The West, disarmed by its own complacency, watches.
2006:
Export quotas are introduced. A whisper of resource conservation is offered. The real reason is leverage.
2009:
The screws tighten. Western firms are pushed to relocate operations to China or be cut off.
2010:
A chilling demonstration of power: after a maritime clash over the Senkaku Islands, China halts rare earth exports to Japan. Global prices skyrocket. Supply chains fracture.
2012:
The United States, Japan, and the EU awaken at last and file a case with the World Trade Organization.
2014:
The WTO rules against Beijing. A brief, Pyrrhic victory for the West.
2015:
China lifts quotas—but tightens internal production controls, maintaining dominance under the guise of environmental stewardship.
Strategic Impact: A Blade with No Sheath
The minerals most threatened:
Neodymium & Praseodymium – the iron sinew of high-strength magnets
Dysprosium & Terbium – the heart of heat-resistant alloys and phosphors
Yttrium & Europium – the bright blood of lasers, screens, and satellite optics
These are not raw materials; they are the nervous system of the modern state.
The New Front
Today, as Trump signals another 50% increase in tariffs, Beijing’s state media calls this confrontation a “strategic opportunity.” It may yet prove to be a grave miscalculation.
China’s Vice Premier Li Qiang has vowed that the nation is “fully confident” in its economic resilience. But confidence is not strength, and rhetoric is not steel. As Henry Gao, an expert in international trade law, notes grimly, “The Chinese economy has been significantly weakened since Trump’s first term.”
Last year, exports to the U.S. were $440 billion—nearly three times what flowed the other way. Much of it machinery, electronics, and consumer goods. Now, a glut looms in domestic markets already saturated.
“Certain products are specifically designed for American or European markets,”
says Tang Yao of Peking University.
“Redirecting them for domestic use will have only a limited effect.”
Even within the pages of the People’s Daily, one reads veiled admissions beneath the nationalist fervor: strategic opportunity is another word for forced pivot.
This is not merely a trade war.
It is the first cold salvo of a new global conflict, a technological standoff not unlike the arms races of the 20th century. This time, the launch codes are in silicon, not silos. The battleground is mineral, digital, and psychological.
And while Washington eyes the Indo-Pacific and Beijing rallies its internal engines, one truth echoes from the last great Cold War:
“He who controls the resources controls the future. He who controls the story controls the war.”
The minerals may be rare, but the struggle for power is not just a meme war on Trump’s tariffs today. There is a larger bolder strategy to this new Cold War.